This is a project that we did for fun, internally, and then realized it might be a great visualization tool for the Bitcoin options market going forward. Here's the graphic:
This is an extraordinary view of what LedgerX options customers are thinking about in terms of Bitcoin. We have call and put options up to 100k.
If you look at this basic representation of trades across various strikes, this is a unique view of what price and expiration market participants are speculating on. The most striking thing is not so much how people are trading near term options, but how the medium term options are much more sparse than the longer expirations.
Embedded in this picture are two main facets — what is Bitcoin going to do in the short term, and what is it possibly going to do in the very long term? The uncertainty in the middle area of expirations shows this near binary dynamic: what will crypto look like in its adolescent phase?
Because it became so interesting to us internally, we are going to evolve this as a next generation real time trade blotter for Bitcoin. This is a fundamentally new asset class that has some of the most uncertain price movement dynamics I’ve ever seen. We’ll make it fun to watch.